NEW YORK–(ENEWSPF)–June 27, 2016
By David Harrison
Donald Trump’s tax and spending proposals would greatly increase the national debt over the next 10 years, while Hillary Clinton’s combination of new revenue and new spending would have a nearly negligible effect on the country’s $14 trillion debt, according to a study released Sunday.
Under the plan put forward by Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, the U.S. debt would grow to 127% of the entire economy, up from 75% today, according to the analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates bringing down the national debt.
Under current law, the debt is expected to grow to 86% of the economy, largely because of automatic spending increases for programs such as Social Security and Medicare driven by the aging population. Under Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump’s likely Democratic challenger, the debt would grow slightly to 87% of the economy, the report found.
Mr. Trump has suggested reducing tax rates for households and corporations while also repealing the estate tax and expanding deductions. Those changes would add about $9.25 trillion to the debt, CRFB found. New spending for veterans’ health care would add another $500 billion, while his proposed crackdown on immigration and his health-care proposals—including repealing the 2010 health-care overhaul— would add another $100 billion, the group estimates. Overall, Mr. Trump would increase the national debt by $11.5 trillion, the report found.
Ms. Clinton would raise about $1.25 trillion over a decade through taxes on high earners and businesses, according to the report. She would also expand health-insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act, boost spending on early childhood education, create a new $350 billion program to hold down college costs and pour $300 billion into new infrastructure projects, the center found. All told, her proposals would roughly even out, adding about $250 billion to the debt by 2026.
Maya MacGuineas, the CRFB’s president, said neither candidate had put forward a plan that would reduce the debt level. “That said, the plan of Donald Trump would add much, much more to the debt than Hillary Clinton’s,” she said Sunday on CBS Face the Nation.
It would take economic growth rates of around 10% to cover the increase in the debt, she said. That would represent an economy growing five times faster than currently projected.
Other reports have reached similar conclusions about Mr. Trump’s proposals.
A study by the Tax Policy Center, a joint project of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, found results similar to the CRFB report. It estimated Trump’s tax changes would reduce revenues by $9.5 trillion over a decade. A report by the Tax Foundation, which favors tax cuts, pegged the number at about $10 trillion after accounting for economic growth.
Last week, an analysis from Moody’s Analytics found that Trump’s policies could plunge the U.S. into another recession. The Republican’s immigration and trade policies would boost the cost of goods and labor, which could force the Federal Reserve to rapidly raise interest rates, prompting the downturn, the report said.
This analysis appeared in the Wall Street Journal at: blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/06/26/study-sees-debt-jumping-under-trump-staying-steady-under-clinton/