Roosevelt University Computer Science Student Develops New Baseball Stat That Could Help Cubs Win!

 

CHICAGO–(ENEWSPF)–September 15, 2015.  JP Hochbaum is a senior computer science major at Roosevelt University. A resident of Chicago’s Wrigleyville neighborhood, he’s also a lifelong Chicago Cubs fan.

Now, at a time when the team is on its way to clinching a playoff spot as one of two National League Wild Card teams, Hochbaum believes he’s come up with a winning formula for the Cubs to predict and excel at scoring runs.

After plugging hundreds of thousands of existing American and National League player statistics dating back to 1876 into Roosevelt’s large-scale data processing center for a class project, Hochbaum has arrived at a new, more precise way to predict who will do best at driving in runs when men are on base.

He calls it the Correlated Run Contribution (CRC) statistic, which uses correlation co-efficients based on batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage in relation to runs scored to predict who will do best at the plate with runners on base.

Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins, and Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs had the highest CRC, according to class research by Hochbaum, who believes the new statistic is a better predictor for driving in runs than a player’s batting average or his OPS (which takes into account a player’s on-base plus slugging averages).

“What JP did was to try and find something more predictive of players’ performance than the traditional statistics out there,” said Eric Berkowitz, associate professor of computer science and chair of the Computer Science and Telecommunication program at Roosevelt University.

“He had to feed the right statistics into the system in order to come up with an algorithm that can accurately predict who is most capable of scoring runners on base. It was a huge undertaking, a project that really stands out and which has the potential to be golden, particularly in the hands of those wagering on games,” added Berkowitz, who had Hochbaum in his Big Data class earlier this year.

Writing online recently for Wrigleyville Times: The Chicago Cubs Sabermetric News, Hochbaum introduced his new CRC statistic, applied it to all Cubs batters, and also asked the question: “Who is the ideal candidate to be at the plate with runners in scoring position and the game on the line?”

In the analysis, Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber had the highest CRC rating, followed by first baseman Anthony Rizzo, third baseman Kris Bryant, right fielder Chris Denorfia, left fielder Chris Coghlan, right fielder Jorge Soler, catcher Miguel Montero, and so on.

“If (Cubs manager) Joe Maddon is making out a lineup every day, he wants to be able to have his highest CRC guys in a position where they can contribute more with runners in scoring position,” writes Hochbaum, who, based on his statistic, suggested that Soler bat ahead of Montero, while Coghlan bat leadoff instead of center fielder Dexter Fowler.
“The Cubs need to upgrade the leadoff position…if the Cubs look to add an impact bat to the lineup in the four or five holes…OPS shouldn’t be the determining factor,” writes Hochbaum, who believes the CRC standing is the  superior predictor.

Paul Sigrist, who published Hochbaum’s piece in the Wrigleyville Times, believes the CRC statistic provides “a new method of dissection in terms of roster construction within baseball…When used properly, the statistic adds significant value in maximizing monetary assets within targeting and acquisition of player assets.”

A Cubs fan through and through, the Roosevelt student  gave his new CRC statistic and findings to the Cubs player development department earlier this summer, but has yet to hear anything back.  However, maybe that’s not a bad thing – considering how the Cubs are in contention for a Wild Card spot.

Source: www.roosevelt.edu